United States vs Paraguay. Locked.

Venue

Los Angeles (Inglewood)

Inglewood, California, USA

Capacity

TBC

On TV

TBC

Weather

Forecast pending

Lands closer to kickoff

Referee

TBC

VAR · TBC

1. 01

   Can the US break a low block?

   Paraguay will sit deep and compact and dare the United States to play through them. Watch the patience and movement of the US attack: do they find the half-spaces and pull Paraguay apart, or do they slow into sterile sideways possession that suits Alfaro perfectly?

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2. 02

   Pochettino's shape and the wing-backs

   Pochettino has leaned on a 3-4-2-1 that asks the wing-backs to provide the width and the crosses. Watch how high they push and whether Paraguay's transitions punish the space they leave. The balance there is the tactical heart of the game.

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3. 03

   Paraguay's set pieces and game management

   Sixteen years out of the World Cup has not dulled Paraguay's identity: organised, physical, hard to beat. Watch how they manage the tempo and whether their dead-ball threat gives them the one moment a defensive side needs against a favourite.

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1. 011-0 USA

   The US work an organised block open once and protect the lead on home soil.
   15%
2. 022-0 USA

   Pochettino's overloads tell twice; Paraguay never get a foothold in transition.
   13%
3. 032-1 USA

   The US lead, Paraguay answer from a set piece or break, the hosts restore the cushion.
   12%
4. 041-1 Draw

   Paraguay's discipline holds, they nick one, and the crowd's nerves do the rest.
   14%
5. 050-0 Draw

   Alfaro's block smothers the game and the US over-force it against a packed box.
   9%
6. 060-1 Paraguay

   Absorb, strike once on the counter or a dead ball, and defend for their lives.
   7%
7. 071-2 Paraguay

   The US lead, Paraguay's experience turns it, and the co-host opener becomes a scare.
   6%

Even the leading scoreline sits at 15% — the call is a band of likely outcomes, not one number.

1. 01

   ~28% likely

   Paraguay's block holds and frustrates.

   If Alfaro's side stays compact and the US slow into sterile possession, the game drifts toward a draw. Home quality counts for little if it is spent in front of a packed box rather than through it.

2. 02

   ~22% likely

   Paraguay take their one moment.

   A set piece or a transition is all a disciplined side needs. If Gómez and company defend a lead, the US chasing a goal in front of an anxious crowd is the hardest version of this game for the hosts.

3. 03

   swing factor likely

   The US score early.

   An early goal forces Paraguay out of their shell, the space the US want opens up, and this number climbs sharply. The read assumes the game stays level through the opening half-hour.

This is a familiar shape: a favourite that wants the ball against a side happy to give it up. Pochettino's United States, often in a 3-4-2-1, will dominate possession and try to overload the wide areas and the half-spaces, freeing Christian Pulisic and the front runners to attack a deep line. Paraguay, under Gustavo Alfaro, will sit compact, keep their distances tight, and look to win the game on transitions and set pieces rather than territory. The key questions run both ways. Can the US move Paraguay's block around quickly enough to open a gap, or do they slow into the sideways possession that suits a defensive side perfectly? And can Paraguay get up the pitch when they win it, or does turning over the ball simply invite another wave? The wing-backs are the swing: they give the US their width and crossing, but the space behind them is where Paraguay's counters and Gómez's clearances want to go. If the US are patient and incisive, quality should tell. If they are anxious and direct, they play into exactly the night Alfaro wants.

No meetings between United States and Paraguay in the recent record — this one starts from a blank page.