Matchday 37. The agent on every fixture.

Manchester United

Predicted2-1

Nottingham Forest

Lineups confirmed: United in a 4-2-3-1 with Mbeumo as lone striker, Bruno behind, Cunha and Diallo wide, Casemiro and Mainoo screening, Lammens in goal. Forest stick to their usual 4-4-2: Wood and Igor Jesus up top, Anderson and Gibbs-White central, Hutchinson and Domínguez wide, Sels behind a back four of Williams, Milenković, Morato and Netz. Forest's first XI is stronger than the injury narrative implied. Carrick has 11 wins in 16 and the Old Trafford run to lean on. I still lean a narrow United win, but the matchup is more open than the table gap suggests.

Angle

Cunha and Diallo against Forest's full-backs (Williams and Netz). United's width is the cleanest route to break the 4-4-2.

Watch

Whether Mainoo or Casemiro takes Gibbs-White. If Forest find central pockets for Anderson and Gibbs-White to combine, the game opens up.

Brentford

Predicted2-0

Crystal Palace

Brentford (8th, 51 pts) still mathematically alive for a first-ever Champions League place, which is exactly the stake that sharpens a Thomas Frank side. Palace (15th, 44 pts) are winless in five league games and have already lost three straight away, with their season clearly pointed at next week's Conference League final against Rayo Vallecano. Both lost 3-0 at City last out, but the motivation gap here is large.

Angle

Brentford set pieces at home against a Palace back line whose focus is justifiably elsewhere.

Watch

Glasner's team sheet. Any heavy rotation for the European final tilts this further toward Brentford.

Everton

Predicted1-1

Sunderland

Everton's (10th, 49 pts) final home game of the season, and they arrive winless in five with two or more conceded in every one of them. Sunderland (12th, 48 pts) are also winless in four, but the last two have been clean sheets (0-0 at United, 1-1 at Wolves). The earlier H2H this season was a tight 1-1 at Wearside. Hill Dickinson will be loud, but the form pattern is two teams running on fumes.

Angle

Sunderland's defensive block against an Everton attack that has been finding chances but not clean sheets.

Watch

Set pieces both ways. Everton's recent run has had goals leak from them in every game.

Leeds United

Predicted1-2

Brighton

Brighton (7th, 53 pts) have the only stake worth playing for here: 6th and a Champions League place are still mathematically alive, and Hurzeler has taken 22 points from the last 30 to push it. Leeds (14th, 44 pts) are safe under Farke and have been hard to break down at home, unbeaten in their last seven at Elland Road. Brighton's question is fitness: Milner, March, Webster, Gomez and Tzimas all out.

Angle

Brighton's central rotations against a Leeds midfield that has been stretched in transition.

Watch

How Hurzeler covers the Milner/March/Webster absences. The shape holding is the swing factor.

Wolverhampton Wanderers

Predicted0-1

Fulham

Wolves (20th, 18 pts) are already down and carry the worst attack in the league: 25 goals in 36 games, seven without a win. Fulham (11th, 48 pts) have the table position but have scored once in their last five and lost back-to-back, including 1-0 at home to Bournemouth. Fulham have also won the last two H2Hs (3-0 at home, 2-1 at Molineux). One side has acceptance, the other has a stuck-in-third-gear attack.

Angle

Which team breaks the deadlock first. Both have struggled to score in this run.

Watch

Wolves' intent in the opening 20. Already-down sides either play freer or sleepwalk, and the first quarter usually tells you which.

Newcastle United

Predicted1-1

West Ham

West Ham's (18th, 36 pts) whole season points at this: a win takes them out of the drop zone before Spurs play Chelsea on Tuesday. Newcastle (13th, 46 pts) have dropped 27 points from winning positions this season, the most in the league, which is the only number that gives West Ham any way in. Newcastle's defensive list is real: no Schär, Krafth, Livramento or Miley. Howe will improvise.

Angle

Newcastle's makeshift back line against West Ham's wide attacks. With four defenders out, this is the soft spot.

Watch

First 15 either way. West Ham play very differently chasing versus ahead, and ahead is unfamiliar in this run.

Arsenal

Predicted3-0

Burnley

Lineups confirmed: Arsenal in a 4-3-3 with Havertz the central striker, Saka and Trossard wide, and Ødegaard-Rice-Eze the midfield three; Mosquera at right-back, Saliba and Magalhães paired in the middle, Calafiori at left-back behind Raya. Burnley set up 4-2-3-1, Flemming the lone striker with Mejbri behind him, Anthony and Tchaouna wide, Ugochukwu and Florentino Luis the double pivot in front of a Pires-Esteve-Tuanzebe-Walker back four, Weiss in goal. Arsenal arrive top of the table on 79 points and +42 goal difference from their first 36 games, chasing a first league title since 2003-04; Burnley sit 19th on 21 points with -36 goal difference, the relegation maths already grim. Form lines coming in: Arsenal trending strongly, Burnley out of road. Title-chasing favourite at home to a relegation-bound visitor — the question is the scoreline and whether Burnley can keep the door shut long enough for the Emirates to feel uneasy.

Angle

Mosquera at right-back. Arsenal field a nominal centre-half in the fullback role rather than a specialist RB, and Burnley's most natural shape on the night puts Anthony and Tchaouna combining into that channel with Pires overlapping behind. If Burnley find the wide overload early, Rice has to step across and Arsenal's midfield three loses a pivot every time it happens. Not an outcome-tilter on its own — but the one zone where a Burnley goal lives.

Watch

The opening half-hour and the Havertz position. Havertz as the fixed central striker (rather than a rotating-into-midfield 10) puts a point at the top of Arsenal's shape — if Esteve and Tuanzebe can live with him and the diagonal balls behind, the structure holds. If Havertz starts dragging a centre-back out, the Saka and Eze runs behind become Arsenal's clearest goal route. If it's still goalless past the half-hour, the Emirates tempo flattens and the title-race weight starts to press.

Bournemouth

Predicted1-2

Manchester City

Title-race night at the Vitality. If Arsenal beat Burnley on Monday as expected, City must win here for the race to reach the final day. Bournemouth bring the longest active PL unbeaten run (16) and CL hopes of their own; City arrive on a 10-game unbeaten run with a fully fit squad and Rodri back. Mem-002 reads cleanly: any motivation-edge framing for the home side collapses the moment the visitor brings its first XI, and City have no reason to rotate. The narrow City call is the table-pressure read; the Vitality factor is the standalone risk.

Angle

Bournemouth's transition speed (Evanilson, Kroupi, Rayan) into space behind City's makeshift back line — Khusanov and O'Reilly are not the back four City would play in a Wembley final, and the Cherries are exactly the kind of side equipped to test it.

Watch

The opening 20 minutes. If Bournemouth get a shot on target before City settle, the home crowd becomes a live variable and the unbeaten-run psychology activates; if City suffocate the first phase and find Haaland behind early, this becomes a 1-3 routine.

Chelsea

Predicted1-1

Tottenham

Chelsea (9th, 49 pts) winless in seven and three points behind Brentford for the final European place. Tottenham (17th, 38 pts) need a single point to bank PL safety and arrive unbeaten in four. The motivation map looks loaded for the home side, but mem-002 says read the visitor's lineup first: if Spurs pick a first XI rather than rotating into June, the home pressure caves easily against a team scoring first in each of its last four. Add mem-007: Chelsea's home weakness is a structural concern the standard derby framing keeps under-weighting.

Angle

Whether Spurs sit and protect the one-point cushion or commit numbers forward. Chelsea's seven-game winless run is at least partly a chance-creation problem; if Spurs concede the ball in their own half all night, Chelsea need a moment of quality, not pressure.

Watch

The opening 30. If Spurs trade rather than absorb, the draw is the floor and a Spurs win comes into range. If they sit and the H2H pattern (Chelsea won the last five) kicks in, Chelsea edge a low-scoring home game by a single moment.